Just two months in the past that the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa look strangely fragile – but at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to blasting the football into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
