A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
